Promoting Informed Action Through Sound Advice On Global Change A Strategy for the Canadian Global Change Program in its Second Decade The Royal Society of Canada, 1995 What is our mission? Our mission is: Promoting Informed Action Through Sound Advice On Global Change. Realizing this mission will require the best available scientific evidence, being explicit about relevant uncertainties, understanding the risks, presenting options in unambiguous terms, being timely with advice, and communicating strategically. What is our vision? We see Canada as part of a global society functioning sustainably so that future generations inherit a healthy and diverse environment. We also see Canada as an agent for positive change in global environmental issues. Central to our culture, values and ethics is the conviction that the CGCP works with partners to ensure that the best possible knowledge on global change can be transformed into options for policy decisions and should be communicated widely throughout society for better understanding and to encourage lifestyle changes that facilitate sustainability. What will our business be? Our business will focus on the following interrelated thrusts:  Research Assessment and Policy Options Assessing outcomes of research in high impact areas to provide policy options for decision makers; Identifying knowledge gaps, filling them and developing opportunities for Canadians internationally; Providing state of the art reviews of Canadian research.  Research Planning and Collaboration Integrating global change research; Enhancing Canada's role in international research programs; Creating mutually beneficial partnerships.  Information Management Managing and brokering information on global change activities and expertise; Developing products and services tailored to needs; Maintaining a global change information resource centre. Communications and education activities will cut across these thrusts. Strategically, the major shift is to place increased emphasis on research assessment and development of policy options. What is our plan? In the short term we will launch a more popular set of information products and services targeted at key decision makers and youth. CGCP will be seen as an independent, unbiased source of information on the difficult issues that must be addressed. In the medium term (3-5 years) we will expand our information centre and service role, providing regular assessments of issues and policy options. Funding sources will be diversified within government, business and foundations, mostly by fee for service. In the long term, (10-15 years) we seek to be the institution of first choice offering a window on global change issues, many of which will likely be quite troubling. Global Environmental Trends The planet is under increasing stress from human intervention. Separating the natural processes driving global change from the change caused by human activity represents a major challenge. Human activity continues to accelerate climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, deforestation, air and water pollution, soil erosion, species extinction and loss of habitat. Consumption in the industrialized countries, stimulated by sophisticated marketing, is a major contributor to global change. The growing industrialization of countries such as China, India and other Asian countries, will add further stresses to the global environment in the coming decade. Breakup of the former Soviet Union, growing tensions over resources in these and many other States, and destruction of productive land in many highly populated areas has also brought environment and security issues to the forefront. Population pressure is another serious stressor on the environment. Even the most optimistic predictions are for about 8 billion people on the planet in 2050. Pessimistic predictions are for about 12 billion. The question is whether the planet has the capacity to absorb this population load. However despite the very serious nature of global change issues and their potentially disastrous impact on natural and human systems, they have not received the attention they should. The long term and potentially troubling nature of many of these changes coupled with the scientific uncertainty surrounding them mean that these issues are not easily dealt with by governments preoccupied with short term problems, quick results and good news. The general acceptance of the concept of sustainable development and more recently the precautionary principle, has inspired some notable progress (e.g. Montreal Protocol, Framework Convention on Climate change). However the increased attention global change issues are receiving has, in a number of instances, led to questionable uses of scientific facts and confusion of the public and the policy makers. As a result, the need for organizations such as the CGCP that act as independent, credible sources of information will undoubtedly grow. The CGCP is in an ideal situation to show leadership and act as an honest broker in coordinating efforts to interpret research results on global change for policy action. Given the increasing globalization of economies and communication systems, global environmental issues and their effects are reaching to all parts of the world. This visibility and understanding of global changes will grow in the coming years and as economies or cultures are affected, governments will be required to assess the risks that are involved and must be prepared to act on options to respond to these risks. As more organizations realize the importance of understanding global changes, they will move to reorient their programs and focus towards global change. Global change is a vast subject. No one organization or agency can hope to cope with all the issues that require study and analysis. Increasing attention to global change issues will not only increase the need for coordination but will also increase competition for limited resources. The need therefore for sincere collaborative efforts is paramount. This also means that each organization must define and demonstrate what it does best if partnerships are to be successful. Over the next five years, the CGCP will, therefore, promote partnership and develop its programs around a limited number of themes that impact to the greatest extent on the Canadian policy context, nationally and internationally. These programs will draw on the best available information, assessment and advice to guide the Canadian policy maker towards addressing the central issues of global change. This document outlines the directions that the CGCP will follow over the medium term by presenting a framework of objectives and priorities that will influence future work plans and products. The CGCP in Context Founded in 1985, under the auspices of the Royal Society of Canada (RSC), the CGCP has evolved into an interdisciplinary and multi-agency network that spans the country. The CGCP brings together scientists and other specialists from many disciplines in the sciences and humanities to plan interdisciplinary research, assess the significance of this research in the policy context and communicate the implications to its target audiences. CGCP is characterized by its independent, non-governmental status, its combination of the natural and human dimensions of global change, its access to worldwide networks of collaborating organizations, its emphasis on issues that have universal relevance throughout the globe, and its access to Canadian capability that can be brought to bear on these issues. Bringing the human dimensions of global change into the program was ahead of its time and difficult to integrate with the natural and physical sciences. The CGCP operates on the premise that forging closer linkages between research and policy on global change issues fosters better decision making towards a sustainable future. The following guiding principles relate to our vision and values:  Relevance and Credibility The CGCP believes that its work must have relevance to a critical need and that to be credible, it must operate at arms length from its clients and bring together the best available expertise when providing advice. Operating under the auspices of the Royal Society of Canada provides this credibility.  Integrated Perspective The CGCP believes that global change issues cannot be addressed in isolation. Integration of knowledge through interdisciplinary exploration is required to arrive at a balanced assessment of the issue.  Partnership The CGCP believes that no institution has the means or capacity to address all the issues of global change. Collaboration is therefore necessary through strategic partnerships that blend the strengths of each partner.  Comparative Advantage The CGCP believes that its comparative advantage is in being non-aligned, flexible, able to act quickly to marshall high quality task teams from its extensive networks, and committed to providing a balanced perspective on each issue. Guided by a Board of Directors with expertise in all aspects of global change issues and from a wide range of sectors, the CGCP focuses on those issues determined to be of highest impact and importance to its clients. In the first decade, the CGCP focus was directed towards encouraging closer dialogue between human and natural scientists, facilitating better coordination of Canadian efforts in global change research, outlining needed research themes and establishing a national information base of global change activities and projects. The dominant activity centred around multidisciplinary research planning to address global change research questions, and development of research agendas that related to international programs such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the Human Dimensions Programme (HDP), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). For example, the CGCP was instrumental in ensuring multidisciplinary components and university sector contributions to the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS). The CGCP's commitment and funding for studies and meetings on environment and security have positioned Canada to make valuable contributions to the HDP. The CGCP also supported the development of a science plan for Canada's involvement in the IGBP's core programs, Land Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) and the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS). More recently, the approach has been to develop closer linkages between the researchers and the policy makers by focusing on studies that assess current research and develop policy options that make sense within the context of future sustainability. This approach was successfully demonstrated with the Panel on Canadian Options for Greenhouse Gas Reduction (COGGER) and will assume greater prominence in CGCP's second decade. Towards the Next Decade From an analysis of global change trends, the CGCP's niche, the predicted funding climate, the needs of our clients and beneficiaries, and the need to move towards sustainable societies while balancing economic growth with equity and a liveable environment, we have redefined our mission. This mission is: Promoting informed action through sound advice on global change. Realizing this mission will require the best available scientific evidence, being explicit about relevant uncertainties, understanding the risks, presenting options in unambiguous terms, being timely with advice, and communicating strategically. The long term goal is to be the key source of independent expertise on global change issues. Objectives The CGCP will carry out this mission in partnership with other like-minded institutions by fulfilling the following objectives:  stimulating the development of research projects, as well as promoting integrated natural, social sciences and humanities research, and synthesizing the results for policy action;  acting as a national focus for international programs, such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Human Dimensions Programme (HDP), and fostering collaboration with global change activities in other countries;  encouraging the involvement of public and private institutions with the national research effort, specifically by assisting in the formulation of effective policies focused on ameliorative and anticipatory action by providing timely information and options to government and industry;  establishing a national information base of global change activities in Canada, both those which are exclusively national in character and those which are components of major international research projects and programs (e.g. IGBP, HDP and the World Climate Research Program [WCRP]);  promoting awareness of the public, the educational community and research and policy sectors of the challenges and opportunities in all dimensions of global change.  developing a national framework for global change research, involving representation from all appropriate research disciplines and organizations in Canada. To achieve this mission the CGCP will adhere to the precautionary principle; be proactive; and promote sustainability. Precautionary Principle: The precautionary principle became a key element of discussions on global change when it was introduced in the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development which states: "Nations shall use the precautionary approach to protect the environment. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, scientific uncertainty shall not be used to postpone cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation." Being Proactive: The CGCP believes that the very nature of global change issues demands a proactive approach. In many cases we cannot wait for definitive evidence before engaging in decisive actions. The CGCP will use its networks and skills to identify emerging issues in time to provide input to policy or to initiate policy relevant work. Promoting Sustainable Development: Central to any long term solution of global change issues is the concept of sustainable development. Introduced to a large audience by the World Commission on Environment and Development, it has become a central element of the environmental discourse. However, any move to sustainability must have solid scientific underpinnings. Providing this is one of the CGCP's comparative advantages. Clients and Beneficiaries A particular group becomes a priority for the CGCP when the group is in a position to help the program fulfill its strategic objectives. The CGCP includes groups that:  Are important sources for or users of information on global change;  Can direct and/or implement policies affecting global change in Canada and abroad;  Can build awareness of the issues and shape the national and international policy and research debate on global change;  Are funding sponsors of the Program. The CGCP's current and potential clients and beneficiaries fall into eight major groups: 1. Research community 2. Senior government policy makers 3. Bureaucrats and advisors to policy makers 4. Business community 5. Youth and Educators 6. Media 7. Funding agencies 8. Non-governmental organizations Strategic Shifts Strategic shifts in program priorities will involve greater emphasis on research assessment and policy options and a reduced emphasis on research planning. Previous levels of effort on information management will be maintained. Within the program the major focuses will be: Research Assessment and Policy Options:  Assessing research results in areas of potentially high impact to our clients and providing policy options for decision making  Identifying gaps in knowledge in Canada and developing opportunities for Canadian involvement internationally  Providing state of the art reviews of the Canadian research effort  Following the evolution of policy related to global change  Facilitating a dialogue between the policy and research communities Research Planning and Collaboration:  Facilitating integrated approaches to global change related research  Enhancing the role of Canadian National Committee to IGBP and HDP  Creating mutually beneficial partnerships with relevant organizations and institutions  Providing a forum for exchange of research information Information Management:  Maintaining up to date knowledge on global change expertise and activities  Providing information products and services tailored to user needs  Acting as an information broker on global change  Maintaining an information resource centre on global change  Facilitating information exchange between partners The CGCP Program has previously identified several points of focus that provide important links between national priorities, international activities and global change issues. These are: climate change; ozone layer; air pollution; water quality and quantity; forests and soils; food supplies; carrying capacity; biodiversity and extinctions; population increase; energy and resource consumption; hazardous wastes. Clearly, the CGCP cannot work on all areas at once. Some areas or issues will be of greater urgency than others to clients and beneficiaries. Also, a balance needs to be kept between national and international interests. The nature of the tasks increasingly warrant collaborative efforts. The CGCP will therefore need to address four strategic issues in executing its program priorities: Program Choices; Mutual Interest; National and International Emphasis; and Inter- Institutional Relations.  Program Choices: Because of resource constraints and the need to increase the probability of impact, criteria have been determined to develop priorities. These are based on: potential for impact; relation to landmark conventions/protocols; value to policy makers; filling gaps in knowledge; potential for partnership/co-funding; relation to post UNCED priorities in the Canadian context.  Mutual Interest: There is considerable potential both in Canada and elsewhere for increased activity between the CGCP and partners that have mutual interests. Government departments in Canada are reducing their in-house capacity and other Canadian organizations in the private and non-profit sectors have need of CGCP's access to expertise and corporate knowledge. Development agencies such as CIDA could use CGCP's knowledge and access to Canadian expertise to help developing countries build capacity to cope with global changes. These and other opportunities will be actively explored by the CGCP.  National and International Emphasis: A balance will have to be made between priorities that are dictated by major international global change programs and the priorities dictated by the Canadian decision makers' need for policy options to deal with specific national priorities.  Inter-Institutional Relations: As CGCP expands its collaborative efforts to other Canadian institutions and to institutions elsewhere, there will be an increasing need for integration of information and efficiency of communications. Strategic alliances, networks and other inter-institutional or organizational arrangements will help forge the mutuality of benefits to be expected from such efforts and allow CGCP to focus on what it does best. CGCP's roles in such arrangements will relate to its comparative advantages in relation to the other partners. Implementation Mechanisms The CGCP will implement its strategy through a medium-term plan linked to a series of annual operational plans. Implementation will require some definition of its core and complementary programs, overhaul of secretariat duties and panels, enhanced collaboration with partners, and a strengthened monitoring and evaluation system. Planning It is proposed to adopt a more rigorous system of planning and management of resources by the articulation of an action plan designed to cover the next five-year period. Such a plan would enable the CGCP to make reasonable assumptions on the delivery of its goals and objectives as well as its operational products. The first of these will cover the period 1995 to 1999. Each year a separate annual plan will provide the fine-tuning mechanism needed to ensure that the program is on track with its products and services and is meeting individual user needs whilst ensuring that the CGCP remains flexible enough to respond to other priority needs as they arise. Monitoring and Evaluation The CGCP requires continual justification of its work if it is to be successful in the long term. Its performance as a program is very important to its partners, stakeholders and clients. All projects must be: timely; relevant; consistent; and have impact. Therefore, the CGCP intends to embody performance measurement concepts into its strategy. The nature of the research into global change does not, however, lend itself easily to conventional forms of measurement. Ultimately, it is expected the CGCP work will contribute to improved living conditions, equity and sustainability of resources. But the long-term and intangible nature of some global change issues and the complex international nature of the solutions makes any form of performance indicators difficult to measure and interpret in a manner that will verify the running of an effective program. Therefore, the CGCP believes that measures of its success should be based on attainment of specific elements in its objectives and work plans. Evaluation Mechanisms The main evaluation procedures will consist of:  reports to the Board by annual internal review;  performance evaluation of staff;  external program evaluations; and  peer assessments. It is proposed to hold at the end of four years a comprehensive External Management and Program Review to evaluate the costs and benefits of the work of CGCP. The evaluation mechanisms will be supported by regular reporting and evaluation of special projects, employing a participatory approach in keeping with the collaborative nature of the work of the CGCP. It is recognized that evaluating the work of the CGCP will not be easy given the fact that positive changes arising out of global change research will be the result of many factors, only some of which may be attributed to the CGCP's direct intervention or collaborative activities. Furthermore, in many cases the results of the CGCP's research initiatives cannot be claimed as its own, since in most cases they are the results of the combined efforts of partners. Future Operational Considerations To fully implement the CGCP strategy, adjustments will be needed to operational management. A flexible approach will allow CGCP to adapt to changes in its business environment. It is important to consider the kind of program delivery system that best suits CGCP's requirements, program support needs, composition of the Board and funding needs. To address these matters, the CGCP acknowledges the need for more program integration and close interaction with partners; the need for effective communication with policy makers and research managers; and the need to ensure that the CGCP staff remains motivated to respond. To meet future operational needs and to complement the Program Strategy, the CGCP intends to look more closely at organizational structure, a funding strategy and the opportunities for moving to a fee for service institution.