RESEARCH FOCAL POINTS The CGCP recognizes the need to capitalize on local and international strengths of the Canadian research community in order to address scientific, social and policy questions. It has been influenced from the start by the need to develop Canadian contributions to the IGBP and the HDGECP. Projects that are part of the CGCP share a number of common traits, including the need to: * improve our understanding of atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric, and biospheric dynamics; * develop models which link climatic, biophysical and socio- economic parameters in order to assess the potential impacts of various global change scenarios; and to * establish mechanisms for effective information management. The focal points of CGCP research are described below. Information on specific projects and other Program activities can be obtained by contacting the Secretariat. The Arctic The CGCP is interested in the Arctic for several reasons. Human disturbances are comparatively recent, offering unique opportunities to explore the effects of human activity. Ice and snow cover are key factors in regulating the temperature of the Earth because they reflect solar energy. The Arctic Ocean affects climate through its link to the North Atlantic and hence to global thermohaline ocean circulation, which transports heat poleward. Degradation of permafrost could lead to increased coastal erosion, a significant modification of northern wetlands and, possibly, to a release in some areas of methane -- a major greenhouse gas -- from underlying frozen gas hydrate accumulations. Critical Zones Some areas are more sensitive than others to the impacts of global change. Coastal zones, the Aral Sea, the Great Lakes, and polar regions stand out as obvious examples. Information is being collected about such sensitive areas, and care is being taken to ensure that data can be exchanged effectively among different groups. Yet little is being done to integrate and assess the information from a global change perspective. The CGCP is encouraging this kind of analysis to help researchers monitor critical areas and to highlight the effects of various policy options. Climate, Oceans & Hydrology Climatic change is central to many of the research and policy questions being addressed through the CGCP. It is the main impetus behind efforts to understand socio-economic systems and the sensitivity of Arctic, atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial processes. Oceans transport enormous amounts of heat over long distances and marine stores of carbon are much larger than their counterparts in the atmosphere. Yet major uncertainties exist concerning the role of oceans in global warming and the processes responsible for transferring carbon to and from the deep sea. The CGCP is addressing these uncertainties, giving special attention to the fact that Arctic seas are notably sensitive and poorly understood with respect to climatic variation. Northern areas of persistent open water, polynyas, are also of interest due to their unique importance to the ecology and climate of Arctic regions. Hydrological processes are another area of concern. Few terrestrial ecosystems can function without freshwater, while major cities and utilities, important fisheries and agricultural areas depend on Canadian supplies. Stocks of groundwater require effective management and protection strategies. Northern rivers act as effective heat pumps, with dramatic effects on the local climate. Wetlands are critical breeding areas for waterfowl and home to many rare or endangered plant species. Lakes and wetlands are sensitive indicators of change and contain an abundance of information about how the environment has changed in the past. They also contribute to alterations in atmospheric composition through the release of trace gases. Culture & Values Human society involves an array of cultural traditions, values, ethics and moral preferences. Often, nature becomes an arena for interplay among the conflicting demands of economy, ecology and recreation. Traditional lifestyles and differences in the way modern and indigenous societies view nature put this in perspective. The CGCP recognizes the need to develop useable frameworks of conception and analysis for historical and cross- cultural studies of human interactions with the environment. Data & Information Systems Canadian data collected for global change studies must be accessible, carefully preserved, documented and advertised to avoid unnecessary duplication and to ensure quality research. These considerations are equally valid for existing archives and data repositories in other countries. The CGCP is focussing attention on standards, compatibility issues and infrastructure requirements that relate to global change data and information systems. Ecosystem Research & Monitoring Canadian studies of global change are focussing on Arctic, montane, prairie, boreal, aquatic and urban ecosystems. Baseline information is required in every case, for a clear understanding of natural and human-induced variability. Efforts range from the development of a high-resolution, digital map of Canadian land cover, to maps of baseline geochemical data. Long-term, inter- disciplinary efforts are required, along with space-borne studies aimed at levels of resolution that permit specific areas and phenomena to be isolated and examined. Boreal areas are one of the most important ecosystems of interest. It was once thought that the oceans would absorb most of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities. This is now being questioned and scientists are placing more emphasis on the role of terrestrial biomass in the global carbon cycle. More needs to be known about the sensitivity of boreal zones to climatic change and the possible consequences of ecological perturbation in these areas. Much of the world's boreal area is located in Canada, providing an enormous opportunity to study the physiology of northern forests and to capitalize on long-established expertise in forest, soil and permafrost research. Energy As a result of the Industrial Revolution, humans began tapping what appeared to be a limitless source of energy -- fossil fuels. The quantity of power stored in fossil fuels is finite, in fact, and at some point in the future we shall run out. The CGCP is encouraging the development of strategies that address this problem, including efforts to conserve current supplies, reduce consumption and promote the use of alternative energy sources. Human Health Several aspects of global change are threats to human health. Global warming may double the annual number of very hot days in temperate zones, putting the very young, the very old, and those of all ages with high blood pressure, chronic respiratory disease, and heart disease at risk. Already, stratospheric ozone depletion may be increasing the incidence of skin cancer. It could also increase the risk of cataracts and disrupt the immune system. The adverse effects of acid precipitation on health include aggravation of chronic respiratory disease, and perhaps enhanced susceptibility to certain varieties of cancer, attributed to the ability of acid haze to block vitamin D synthesis. The CGCP is exploring how these problems can be monitored and the implications for health clearly identified. Past Environments Global change involves interaction and feedback over wide temporal and spatial scales. Modern systems need to be examined and understood, but some insights can only be derived from looking at evidence found in historical and geological records. Canada and the CGCP have unique roles to play in this respect since high-latitude ecosystems clearly reveal the impacts of past global changes. Renewable Resources Global change poses a number of questions aimed at renewable resource management. For example, how will variations in climate affect the production of food, wood and wildlife? How will commercial fish stocks respond to changes in freshwater and marine ecosystems? Requirements for research in this area are particularly urgent in Canada where agriculture, forestry, and fisheries make large contributions to the national economy. Security Global change may eventually dominate all factors affecting international relations. Countries will argue and compete over unpredictable supplies of food and water; some disputes may lead to war. The CGCP is attempting to identify mechanisms through which global change may lead to conflict, areas of the world where such friction is likely, and national policies that each country could adopt in anticipation of these dilemmas. --------- June 1992