2 A more complete analysis of developments in science and adaptation (Chapter 4 of the National Action Program on Climate Change) is provided to Ministers in a separate report by the Canadian Climate Program Board titled Canada's Progress Towards Implementing the Science and Adaptation Component of the National Action Program on Climate Change.
3 IPCC Second Assessment Climate Change 1995: A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Dec. 1995, pg. 45.
4 "Canada's National Action Program on Climate Change 1995", pg. 8.
5 IPCC Second Assessment Climate Change 1995: A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO and UNEP, Dec. 1995, pg. 5.
6 Report of the United Nations Environment Program Insurance Industry Initiative, presented at the second meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Geneva, July 1996.
7 T. Karl et al, "Indices of Climate Change for the United States", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, V.77.2, pp 279-92., Feb. 1996.
8 The period from 1980's to present includes the five largest losses to forests due to fire since records have been kept in Canada. The combined losses in 1994 and 1995 were the largest back-to-back ever (14.3 million hectares compared with annual average loss of 2.8 million hectares). Scientific opinion differs as to whether these trends are among the first signs of climate change or are related to other causes such as the ageing of the Canadian boreal forest. The IPCC considers boreal forests as among the ecosystems most susceptible to major impacts due to fires, insects and rapid temperature changes (IPCC Second Assessment Climate Change 1995: A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO and UNEP, Dec. 1995, pp. 26-28).
9 For more detailed information on projected impacts on Canada, see the CCPB report titled Canada's Progress Towards Implementing the Science and Adaptation Component of the National Action Program on Climate Change, November 1996.
10 S.J. Cohen et al., "MacKenzie Basin Impact Study Final Report", Environment Canada (in press for January 1997 release).
11 The Framework Convention on Climate Change, in its preamble, notes "that the largest share of historical and current global emissions
of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that
the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs". Canada, along with
the other developed countries, have recognized these responsibilities and committed in Article 4.2.a to "adopt national policies and
take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate changeThese policies and measures will demonstrate that developed countries
are taking the lead in modifying longer-term trends in anthropogenic emissions consistent with the objective of the Convention." Canada
has made a national commitment to stabilize its emissions of greenhouse gases at 1990 levels by 2000.
12 IPCC Second Assessment Climate Change 1995: A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO and UNEP, Dec. 1995, pg. 54.
13 Article 4.2.a of the Framework Convention on Climate Change notes the commitments of Annex I countries should "take into account the differences in these [Annex I] Parties' starting points and approaches, economic structures and resource bases, the need to maintain strong and sustainable economic growth, available technologies and other individual circumstances, as well as the need for equitable and appropriate contributions by each of the Parties to the global effort"
14 Annex I Parties include the countries of the OECD, the European Union, the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe.
15 "Canada's National Report on Climate Change 1994", Executive Summary, pg. VI.
16 S. Rive. "An International Comparison of Energy Use". The Energy Newsletter, McMaster Institute for Energy Studies, Vol. 6(1), January 1985, pp. 2-18. Also, with respect to the service sector, see Lee Schipper et al, "Energy Use in the Service Sector: An International Perspective", in Energy Policy, June 1986, pp. 201-218, which concluded that electricity intensities in Norway, Canada, the U.S.A. and Sweden are well above those in other OECD countries.
17 It is understood that Natural Resources Canada, Environment Canada and Foreign Affairs and International Trade are currently working on a paper that explores Canada's special national circumstances.
18 See "Trends in Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-1994" (Interim Report unpublished), Pollution Data Branch, Environment Canada, May 1996.
19 Canada's Energy Outlook, updated in 1994, projected a 13% increase in emissions. An early draft of the 1996 update, currently out for peer review, indicates an approximate 9.5% increase in energy related greenhouse gases. When other non-energy related gases are factored in, the gap could be as low as 8%.
20 Source: United Nations, Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Conference of the Parties, "Review of the Implementation of the Convention and of decisions of the First Session of the Conference of the Parties; commitments in Article 4.1", Second Compilation and Synthesis of First National Communications from Annex I Parties. Executive Summary by the Secretariat (Geneva, Switzerland: FCCC Secretariat, 10 June 1996), FCCC/CP/1996/12.
21 Using the latest published global warming potentials, this comprehensive approach factors in the total radiative forcing due to all greenhouse gases. Canada has been a long time supporter of this approach and has expressed its national commitment to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases as a comprehensive goal.
22 In many cases policies have been introduced for reasons other than targeted greenhouse gas reduction (e.g. economic restructuring of Germany).
23 IPCC Second Assessment Climate Change 1995: A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, section 4.10, WMO and UNEP, Dec. 1995, pg. 9.
24 "Canada's National Action Program on Climate Change", Chapter 5, pg. 39.
25 Preliminary projections from Natural Resources Canada assume energy intensity gains, defined as the ratio of final energy demand over gross domestic product, in the order of 1.1% per year from 1995 to 2020. Historically, Canada averaged an energy intensity improvement of 1.6% per year between 1980 and 1995.
26 Mark Storey et al, "Demand Side Efficiency: Voluntary Agreements with Industry", OECD Environment Directorate, Paris, April 1996.
27 The Canadian Industry Program for Energy Conservation (CIPEC), created in the mid 1970's, has a process for the specification of clear targets and has developed a world class monitoring system. Many CIPEC members have now registered individually with the Voluntary Challenge and Registry.
28 One European Union study showed net costs for a 50% emissions reduction to be only one fifth the gross costs. See Climate Change 1995 Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee and E. Haites, eds. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1996, Chapter 7.
29 The IPCC defines "no regrets" as "those [measures] whose benefits, such as reduced energy costs and reduced emissions of local/regional pollutants equal or exceed their cost to society, excluding the benefits of climate change mitigation."
30 IPCC Second Assessment Climate Change 1995: A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO and UNEP, Dec. 1995, pg. 53.
31 IPCC Second Assessment Climate Change 1995: A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO and UNEP,
Dec. 1995, pg. 45.
32 See "Canadian Options for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction (COGGER)", Canadian Global Change Program Technical Report Series No. 93-1, The Royal Society of Canada, September 1993.
33 IPCC WGIII Summary for Policy Makers, 1995 in IPCC Second Assessment Climate Change 1995: A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For a full discussion of options for engaging the market place, see Chapter 11, pp. 401-403 of Climate Change 1995 Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee and E. Haites, eds. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1996.
34 "Science and Technology for the New Century A Federal Strategy", March, 1996.