CCP Info
In order to make the most of shared interests and a close working relationship between the Canadian Global Change Program (CGCP) and the Canadian Climate Program (CCP), DELTAcontains a special section devoted entirely to issues of concern to the CCP.
The CCP was created in 1979 to coordinate national efforts in the field of climate, and to use the knowledge gained to assist individuals, corporations and governments. The program is led by the Atmospheric Environment Service of Environment Canada, but involves other federal departments, provincial governments, research councils, universities, corporations and consultants. Your comments and suggestions regarding this section are welcome. Please address them to the DELTAEditor at the CGCP address given on page two.
To obtain more information about the Canadian Climate Program, contact the Canadian Climate Program Office, Atmospheric Environment Service, 4th Floor, North Tower, Les Terrasses de la Chaudière, 10 Wellington St., Hull, Quebec K1A 0H3; tel: (819) 997-8856; fax: (819) 994-8854; e-mail: ccpo_bpcc@ncrsv2.am.doe.ca
The Canada Country Study: Climate Impacts and Adaptation
Nicola Mayer
Environmental Adaptation Research Group
Environment Canada
Climate change research is both vast and diverse. It has been undertaken by various governments, universities and private industries world wide. In its nature, climate change will potentially have both positive as well as negative repercussions for every sector of society. One of the main goals of the Canada Country Study (CCS) is the examination and integration of climate change within the intricate fabric of the country we live in. This means bringing scientific research and combining it with socio- economic research to gain a better understanding of the complexities and the extent that climate change may have on our society. The closest any previous research has come to this goal is the work done at the international level by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC has just completed its second assessment. As yet, however, there has been no national integrated assessment of what climate change might mean for Canada.
The CCS was introduced by Dr. Ian Burton (now past director of the Environmental Adaptation Research Group, Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada) at a workshop in Toronto, March 27-29, 1996. The objective was to bring climate change from being principally a scientific endeavour to a public, private, and policy makers issue. The following are issues that the CCS intends to address:
- The Canadian public wants to know how serious the threat of climate change really is.
- Decision and policy makers, planners and managers are reluctant to make major decisions without a clearer sense of the reality and potential severity of the risks.
- There are major stakeholders who perceive themselves to be more at risk from the counter measures that governments might take, than from climate change itself.
- The cost of curbing greenhouse gas emissions is potentially very high, and can only be justified if impacts are similarly high. It is widely agreed that after the first round of relatively low cost reductions (energy efficiency), the costs of further reductions will increase very sharply.
- Possible damages due to climate change can be reduced by the processes of adaptation, yet little research in this area has been undertaken.
Answers to the above issues require investigation, and that is the purpose of the CCS. A two phase approach is proposed: Phase I will integrate present knowledge, identify gaps in research and suggest priority areas where new knowledge is most urgently needed; Phase II will develop research projects examining the gaps and priority areas identified in Phase I. For each of the Phases an integrated policy makers' summary will be produced.
A New Methodology
At the March workshop Dr. Burton suggested a new methodology for climate impacts research to be used in the CCS. This new methodology was developed after consideration of the strengths, weaknesses and omissions from current climate impact research. It differs from traditional studies in the following areas:
Sectoral to Integrated Studies
Current studies are largely sectoral (e.g. impacts on corn crops in Ontario, on forests in the Mackenzie basin), and are often focused on a single place or small region (e.g. the effects of a one metre sea level rise at Charlottetown, P.E.I.; water supplies in the Grand River basin). It is becoming evident that these single sector studies leave the impacts story half told. As yet little attention has been paid to multiple stress factors. A crop's vulnerability to climate change depends on other atmospheric changes occurring simultaneously. When a forest is under stress from acid deposition or enhanced UVB, a small climate change might have a greater impact than would otherwise be the case. Actual integration research will not start until Phase II of the CCS, but it is hoped that Phase I will identify multiple stress factors that are significant to each region and sector.
Single Region to a National Study
Over the past decade, more than 100 studies of possible impacts of climate change in Canada have been completed or are now nearing completion. The total number of studies is impressive, but because of their highly fragmented nature, it is not easy to estimate the total level of impacts nation wide. It is for this reason that CCS proposed a two phase approach. The first is designed to examine all previous studies so that duplication is avoided in Phase II. A national study will also consider indirect and extra- territorial impacts. These are impacts that result from actions or events that occur elsewhere in the world but also effect Canada.
2xCO2 Equilibrium to Present and Transient Studies
Most impact studies are based on 2xCO2 scenarios (climate projections with atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, or carbon dioxide equivalents of all greenhouse gases, twice their pre-industrial levels). This reliance on 2xCO2 scenarios neglects the fact that climate changes over time, and that adjustments can be made over time, not solely when 2xCO2 is reached. Furthermore, most impact studies do not address the case of 3xCO2 or 4xCO2 concentrations. Current methodology has largely excluded dynamic or transient responses to climate change.
The EERE Assumption to Socio-Economic Scenarios
The General Circulation Model (GCM)-based scenarios of future climate are based on the present day economy. The simplifying assumption is often made that nothing else is changing except the climate. The so-called EERE (Everything Else Remaining Equal) assumption is a major weakness in most climate impact studies. The relaxation of this assumption allows studies to consider other changes — both direct and indirect — such as economics, population, technology and policy regulation.
Climate Change to Climate Variability
There is virtually no research on the impacts of current climate and its variations, and the ways in which we now adapt. Because it has been assumed that the climate is a given and is subject only to very slow change, it has not been considered necessary to study how climate impacts society today. It is something of a paradox that there is more interest in the study of the impacts of some future uncertain climate, than in current climate. This point applies even more strongly to adaptation. It has been stated that study of adaptation to future climate poses severe methodological difficulties. One useful approach to this problem would be to examine adaptation and maladaptation to current climate.
Impacts Only to Adaptation and Maladaptation
There has previously been little attention paid to adaptation to climate change, and the notion of maladaptation has yet to be recognized in the climate impacts research community. Maladaptation means those actions taken in the socio-economic system which can increase vulnerability to climate change. It is now believed by leading scientists that we are already committed to a certain amount of climate change. The study of adaptation provides options to lessen or adjust to the impacts of climate change; while the study of maladaptation outlines areas where policy or practices hinder natural adaptation to change. Thus these are perhaps two of the most important tools in studying how society should cope with climate change.
Climate Threats and Risks to Climate Benefits and Opportunities
The current research has focused heavily on the downside of climate change, with little attention to the benefits and opportunities that will be created. Informed action to take advantage of the new opportunities could reduce the net adverse impacts of climate change.
Terminology
There is no commonly accepted framework for the comparison and integration of the results of climate impact studies. This deficiency applies not only in Canada, but is universal. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change proposes the concept of danger as a means of integrating understanding of the climate problem, proposing three criteria for "dangerous interference with the climate system": sustainable economic development, world food supplies and the capacity of ecosystems to adapt naturally.
An important intellectual challenge for the CCS is, therefore, to find ways of integrating our understanding of climate impacts. The study proposes combining regional and sectoral approaches, allowing the regional dimension pride of place, and aggregating the six regional assessments into a national picture.
Structure of Phase I
The present objective of Phase I is to create a report in five parts:
- Policy makers' summary and recommendations
- Synthesis report and recommendations
- Regional reports
- Sectoral reports
- Cross-cutting and integrative reports
The March 1996 workshop addressed the regional, sectoral and cross-cutting reports in some detail.
Regional reports
A fundamental problem for Phase I is the integration of existing knowledge. We hope to base the synthesis on regions — a spatial integration. A conventional way of doing this has been to divide the country into bioregions; regions which correspond to the main ecosystem components of the landscape. Much of the ecological research is focused on specific ecosystems; however, responsibility for policy and action lies at the provincial level. For the results of the Phase I integration exercise to be relevant to these decision makers it is important to integrate the information within regions corresponding to their areas of jurisdiction. The six regional reports and their lead authors are:
- British Columbia and Yukon; Eric Taylor
- Prairie Provinces; Ross Herrington
- Ontario; Tim Bullock
- Quebec; Jacinthe Lacroix
- Atlantic Region; Jim Abraham
- Arctic; Barrie Maxwell
An interagency and multistakeholder group will be established by each region.
Sectoral reports
It is also useful to synthesize the present knowledge of impacts by sectors. This provides a nation-wide view of impacts that can be used for sectoral policy making as well as support for the regional studies. There are important sectors, both economically, ecologically and societally, that will be impacted by climate change, they are:
- agriculture
- built environment
- energy
- fisheries: fresh water and marine
- forestry
- health
- insurance and financial services
- tourism and recreation
- transportation
- unmanaged ecosystems, biodiversity and wildlife
- water resources.
Currently lead authors have not been identified for all the sectors. For more information regarding the sectoral reports, please contact the CCS secretariat (address below).
Cross-cutting reports
At present, the following topics are expected to be considered:
- Air issues
- Extra-territorial impacts
- Specific regional studies (e.g. Toronto-Niagara Study)
- Economic evaluation
- Adaptation
Current Status
Roger Street has taken over as Director of the Environmental Adaptation Research Group from Ian Burton and will lead the CCS.
The National Climate Impacts Study for Canada — Phase I is now part of the Minister of the Environment's Clean Air Campaign and is expected to be completed by Fall 1997. A lead authors' workshop was held on September 26-27, 1996 in Downsview, Ontario. So far two regions have already planned workshops to bring together contributors and stakeholders for their components. Eric Taylor of the British Columbia and Yukon region is the contact for their workshop being held February 27-28, 1997 at Simon Fraser University, Vancouver. On the other side of the country Jim Abraham is planning a workshop for the Atlantic region for two to three days near the end of November 1996 in Halifax, Nova Scotia. For more information concerning workshops please contact the CCS Secretariat.
To facilitate the sharing of research material among different regions and sectors, as well as among stakeholders, a central database has been established in Downsview, Ontario. Pam Kertland, of Policy, Program and International Affairs at Environment Canada's Atmospheric Environment Service, is in charge of compiling and maintaining this database.
One of the most important tasks when undertaking a project of this nature is communications. A Secretariat has been established whose main function is to keep everyone informed and in contact with one another. Barrie Maxwell of Environment Canada is heading this essential role.
For more information contact the CCS Secretariat, c/o Environment Adaptation Research Group, Atmospheric Environment Service, 4905 Dufferin St., Downsview, Ontario, M3H 5T4. Tel: 416-739- 4389; fax: 416-739-4297.
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