TABLE OF CONTENTS PRELIMINARY REPORT FROM THE MACKENZIE BASIN IMPACT STUDY (MBIS) FINAL WORKSHOP BIODIVERSITY -- WHY SHOULD WE CARE? CGCP NOW ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT PROJECT FISHERIES PANEL IS GLOBAL WARMING STILL WORTH A BLIP? THE IAI INTITIAL SCIENCE PROGRAM AND THE IAI START-UP GRANTS CANADIANS AWARDED IAI GRANTS HUMAN DIMENSIONS STUDENTSHIP AWARDED BY ROYAL CANADIAN GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY CCP INFO OECD SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS MCGILL'S C2GCR APPOINTS NEW DIRECTOR START OFFERS FELLOWSHIP AND VISITING LECTURER PROGRAMES CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PHYSICIANS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT ROYAL SOCIETY MEDAL AWARDED FOR NEW WASTE MANAGEMENT PROCESS GLOBAL CHANGE GAMES ON PARLIAMENT HILL   RECENT PUBLICATIONS EVENTS CALENDAR

DELTA: NEWSLETTER OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL CHANGE PROGRAM (CGCP) is published quarterly by the Royal Society of Canada (RSC). It is named after the fourth letter of the Greek alphabet, a universal symbol for incremental change. This issue was edited by K. Mortimer. The members of the DELTA Editorial Board are M.R. Dence (RSC), F. Kenneth Hare (University of Toronto), J. Holmes (Parliamentary Centre), R.A. Price (Queen's University) and J. Watson (RSC). Desktop publishing and printing by Plantagenet Printing. Cover design and logo by 3rd Wave Design. We thank everyone who contributed. Your contributions or comments are always welcome. The next submission deadline is August 30, 1996. The opinions expressed in this newsletter are those of the writers, and do not necessarily represent those of the CGCP. Preliminary Report from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) Final Workshop Stewart J. Cohen Environment Canada and University of British Columbia The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases will lead to a warming of the world's climate. The Mackenzie Basin, including parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Yukon and the Northwest Territories, has already experienced a warming trend of 1°C this century, and there is some evidence that this has led to permafrost thaw and lower lake levels in some areas. This does not necessarily mean that the "signal" of human-induced warming has been detected, but it does demonstrate that the Mackenzie region is sensitive to current climate variation. Some have suggested that this region, with its current warming trend, may provide an early indicator of climate change impacts, analogous to the canary in the mine. Scenarios of climate change, based on outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the atmosphere, indicate that this region would warm by 4 to 5°C by the middle of the 21st century. What impacts would result from these scenarios? If science could provide some answers to this "what if" question, how would stakeholders respond to the "so what" and "what should be done" questions? The objective of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) is to produce an integrated regional assessment of climate change scenarios for the entire watershed, including terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. This six-year research collaborative was initiated by Environment Canada in 1990. The MBIS has attracted research participants from many disciplines, and also benefited from research contributed by other programs. MBIS was steered by a working committee composed of representatives from governments, aboriginal organizations and the private sector. On May 5-8, 1996, the MBIS Final Workshop was held in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories. Research results ("What if?") were presented in paper and poster sessions, and a forum was held to solicit reactions from stakeholders ("So what?" and "What should be done?") through a series of round table discussions on five themes: interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of ecosystems, economic development, maintenance of infrastructure, and sustainability of native lifestyles. A sixth roundtable session on recommendations concluded the workshop. More than 100 people attended, including researchers and stakeholders from the study area and other parts of Canada. There was also an international contingent of scientists from the United States, Europe and Australia. This workshop was co-sponsored by Environment Canada, the Canadian Global Change Program, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, Alberta Environmental Protection, N.W.T. Renewable Resources, Canadian Polar Commission, and Aurora Research Institute (formerly Science Institute of N.W.T. and Aurora College). Some key findings are the following climate change scenario effects for the MBIS region, assumed to occur over the next 50 years: basin runoff is projected to decline slightly (increases are projected for some sub-basins) with an earlier start to the spring peak, lake levels at Great Slave and Great Bear Lakes are projected to decline to below current minimum levels during the winter months, ice on the Peace River is projected to form later in the fall, break up sooner in the spring, and its upstream advance could be reduced by more than 200 km, increased permafrost thaw and accompanying landslides are projected to occur in the Mackenzie Valley and Beaufort Sea coastal zone, particularly in ice-rich and sloping terrain, peatlands are projected to disappear from areas south of 60°N and expand in northern areas, though the rate and timing of change has not been determined, forest growth rates are projected to change, with fire frequency and severity increasing, and this could adversely affect commercial forestry potential (especially softwoods) and some wildlife species, caribou could be adversely affected by projected increases in summer temperatures accompanied by increased insect harassment, the potential for wheat production would be improved so long as new technology is developed that is adapted to higher latitudes, despite the longer summer, impacts on tourism would be mixed rather than generally positive, oil and gas production costs would not necessarily decline; there would be increased uncertainty and risk associated with the planning, design and operation of transportation systems and other infrastructure, and community impacts would vary depending on permafrost thaw rates and landslide risk (site specific), changes in ecosystems and resource potential, and the nature of future economic development patterns, which could also be affected by climate change; vulnerability of communities would vary with changing institutional relationships, access to all-season roads, and the nature of their economies (wage, non-wage, or mixed). These and other possible changes may be outside the limits of historical experience, and so may have implications for various resource management policies, plans, and agreements. Identification of these implications will require consultation with the region's stakeholders. Participants at the round table discussions held during the MBIS Final Workshop took the first step by providing comments on climate change from a wide range of regional perspectives. This consultation needs to continue long after the completion of the MBIS, because the climate change issue will not go away, even though this particular research exercise is nearly finished. Some preliminary indications from the round table discussions can be characterized by a few observations. First, when asked if the scenario of climate change impacts made a difference to their visions of the future, most roundtable panelists said Yes, or Yes in the long term. Some of them indicated that the scenario results were new to them, thereby raising new questions that would need to be addressed in other areas. Specific examples included the forest industry and engineering in permafrost environments. Second, some had expressed the opinion that there was little the region could do other than adapt in a reactive fashion. Several others stated that proactive responses would be developed, but these were not always defined. It was suggested that perhaps it was time for Northerners to get more involved in the national and international debate about responses to climate change. Finally, there was considerable discussion about consultation and communication, and the difficulties encountered in trying to maintain strong linkages between different government jurisdictions, different scientific disciplines, and between scientists and aboriginal people. Most stakeholders focus on more immediate regional concerns, so it is difficult for them to invest time and resources in a long term global scale issue like climate change. There are no easy answers to this problem, but the only way to get more shareholders is to bring the climate change issue to stakeholders in their terms of reference. One suggestion was that MBIS produce "clear language" or "plain language" reports of its findings and distribute these within the region. In addition, there needs to be a regionally based structure that could provide a focal point for bringing Northerners together on a regular basis so that they could be kept informed about the latest research on global climate change and related environmental issues. Inter-project collaboration was encouraged between projects initiated in the North (e.g. West Kitikmeot Slave Study) and those initiated from outside the North (e.g. International Arctic Science Committee’s Bering Sea Impact Study). There was also a proposal for a greater lobbying effort to bring Northern concerns about climate change to the attention of the federal government The MBIS Final Report and related documents are expected to be released later in 1996. For more information contact Stewart Cohen, Sustainable Development Research Institute, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4; tel: (604) 822-1635; fax: (604) 822-9191; e-mail: scohen@sdri.ubc.ca