TABLE OF CONTENTS MBIS: A MID-TERM PROGRESS REPORT EXPEDITION STUDYING ARCTIC OCEAN AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE-ARCTIC RESEARCH CGCP NOW CMOS GLOBAL CHANGE FORUM IGBP UPDATE IPCC-SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT IDNDR-THE YOKOHAMA STRATEGY OPINION-IGBP REPORT NO. 28: WORK PLAN 1994-1998 UVB IMPACTS CONFERENCE UNIQUE WEATHER PROJECT   CCP INFO MODELLING THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM WEATHER AND CLIMATE: INFORMATION FOR AGRICULTURE JAMES BRUCE WINS 1994 IMO PRIZE

DON'T FORGET TO INSERT BOX - KEY QUESTIONS BEING ADDRESSED... THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)-- SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT James P. Bruce IPCC, Working Group III   The IPCC was formed in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Program. Its mandate is to provide international consensus assessments of available knowledge of the science of climate change, effects on ecosystems and socio-economic activities, and analysis of response options. Its First Assessment Report in 1990 and up-date in 1992 had a major impact. They were very influential in the development and signature by 150 nations at Rio, in 1992, of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. This international convention is now in force. The first meeting of the Conference of Parties to the Convention will begin 31 March, 1995, in Berlin. To assist the Conference of Parties in its work, the IPCC is engaged in preparing its Second Assessment Report. This is being done through three working groups. Working Group I is concerned with the current state of knowledge from the natural sciences of the probable evolution of the global climate system under the influence of increasing greenhouse gases and other forcing factors. These factors include both those induced by human activities and natural factors (solar variations, volcanic eruptions, etc.). The second Working Group is concerned with impacts of projected changes on ecosystems and human systems, possible sectoral adaptation measures, and strategies to limit greenhouse gas emissions and increase sequestering of carbon on a sector by sector basis. Working Group III deals with "crosscutting" social and economic issues on a regional and global scale. In particular, it is addressing the economic costs of emission limitations and of inaction on greenhouse gas emissions, equity issues between North and South and between generations, an analysis of policy instruments open to governments to address the issue and other related matters. Working Group III's Technical Support Unit is being provided by Canada, led by Erik Haites (Barakat and Chamberlin, Toronto) and one of two Co-Chairs (the author). The other Co-Chair is Dr. Hoesung Lee, President of South Korea's Energy Economics Institute. For the first time for IPCC, a team of some 50 leading economists and social scientists has been assembled, and is working with natural scientists on the WG III assessments. Working Groups I and II have Technical Support Units and Co-Chairs provided by the United Kingdom and the U.S.A., with developing country Co-Chairs from Brazil (G.L. Filho Meira) and Zimbabwe (M.C. Zinyowera). A number of Canadians associated with the Canadian Climate Program and the Canadian Global Change Program are contributing to the three working groups. The procedure for producing reports is elaborate. First, country representatives for each working group agree on a report outline and chapter headings at a plenary session (Montreal, May 1993 for WG III). Then writing teams are appointed with lead authors drawn from the leading specialists in the field of each chapter. A writing team of four to six lead authors is assembled for each chapter with at least one from a developing country, and covering a breadth of perspective on the chapter material. Each Writing Team reviews the available literature on their topic, often with the help of contributing authors. Their draft reports are then distributed widely for peer review, amended and then sent for governmental review before being finalized. The countries are then provided one more opportunity for review at a plenary session of the working group. The full IPCC subsequently reviews the policy makers' summaries. While consensus is sought, if there are widely held differing interpretations of the published material that cannot be reconciled, then the two or several views will be presented. This process is very time consuming but necessary if a consensus of the scientific and technical community and of governments in all parts of the world is to be obtained. The review process means that almost a full year is needed between the first draft reports from the lead authors and final report approval. The Second Assessment Report will be in two parts. One is a short report on "Radiative Forcing of Climate and Review of Global and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios" produced by WGs I and III, which will be ready for the first meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP) next spring. The much more complete assessment will not be completed until September 1995 for subsequent meetings of the COP. The draft chapters of this SAR are going out for peer review in autumn 1994, and a number of Canadian peer reviewers will participate. A further issue arising from the expected needs of the COP has been referred to the IPCC for scientific and technical input. This is, what scientific advice can be provided to the difficult task of defining and making operational the ultimate objective of the Convention, as stated in Article 2? This objective is to "stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that would not cause dangerous human interference with the climate system". The question of what could be considered "dangerous" is a political judgement, but one that must be informed by scientific assessments. Are there potential climate-induced rates of change or thresholds for ecosystems or social and economic systems that could be considered "dangerous"? Are there instabilities in the atmosphere-ocean system itself that might have "dangerous" consequences? Are the recently observed extremes of climate, cold air and water off Labrador, severe storms and floods, part of natural climate variability or are they early indicators of a changing climate? In order to begin addressing these kinds of questions, an IPCC workshop sponsored by all three Working Groups will be held in Fortaleza, Brazil in October 1994. From this, a drafting group led by IPCC Chairman, Professor Bert Bolin (Sweden) will prepare an initial synthesis assessment for wide review and possible incorporation in the Second Assessment Report. It is our hope that the Second Assessment will have the balance and inherent authority to be widely accepted, and be helpful in wise management of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and thus of human impacts on our vital global climate system. For more information contact: James P. Bruce 1875 Juno Avenue Ottawa, Ontario K1H 6S6 tel: (613) 731-5929 fax: (613) 731-3509.