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TABLE OF CONTENTSMBIS: A MID-TERM PROGRESS REPORT EXPEDITION STUDYING ARCTIC OCEAN AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE-ARCTIC RESEARCH OPINION-IGBP REPORT NO. 28: WORK PLAN 1994-1998
CCP INFO
MODELLING THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM
WEATHER AND CLIMATE: INFORMATION FOR AGRICULTURE
JAMES BRUCE WINS 1994 IMO PRIZE
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Opinion
International Geosphere-Biosphere Program Report No. 28--IGBP in Action: Work Plan 1994-1998
Digby J. McLaren
International Geosphere-Biosphere Program's (IGBP's) Report No. 28 provides an overview of research to be carried out over the next five years. The program has developed greatly since the last document of similar scope--Report 12 (1990), and the present report is intended to provide researchers with an up-to-date synthesis of what IGBP is doing. It presents work plans for the ten Core Projects involving the water, land and atmosphere of the planet, their interactions and use, as well as systems of analysis and information. Further review and planning have resulted in six key research questions that are addressed, with an operational duration of about a decade. It is stressed that it is necessary to achieve a predictive understanding of the processes that regulate the global system and of how anthropogenic processes will affect the future of the Earth. The discussions under each of the projects, as with previous reports, make it clear that current and accelerating human activity already plays a major role in deciding future research. I have already referred to this in my letter to DELTA discussing IGBP Report 24 and Report 25 (Vol. 4, No. 2, 1993), and this was further discussed by Bernard Muller in the following issue (Vol. 4, No. 3, 1993). A few examples may be given from the current Report:
These and many other concerns are accelerating in parallel with population, resource use and waste production. The scientists involved in IGBP core programs are among the best informed globally on these problems and are therefore already in a good position to explain their seriousness. Although further research is certainly necessary, we already know enough in many areas to recommend immediate action. Because of accelerations, every day that passes increases the difficulty of taking action. I believe that the IGBP should recognize the urgency of the present situation, explain present reality, and advise on measures to slow, stop and reverse trends that appear to lead to further environmental destruction. Such advice would be based on knowledge already available, but would be supported by clearly defined plans for further research, along the lines of the proposals in Report 28. Our knowledge must be brought into the public domain. Ironically the opposition is more effective than we are. The technological and economic optimists are active in the public domain and are doing immediate things. They claim that humans can cope with population growth and environmental change, and encourage the continuation of activities that our conclusions would warn against. They are politically active and effective, and apparently encounter little opposition, apart from green extremists, with whom we do not associate. Are we, the scientists, frightened by the reality we are uncovering, and hide behind the comforting screen of more research to be quite sure? We are faced by a daunting body of empirical evidence that cannot be explained away by any postulate or theory, and we must use it to answer the Utopians and to inform the public and governments. By the time we have solved all environmental problems, there will be nothing left to study.
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