TABLE OF CONTENTS MBIS: A MID-TERM PROGRESS REPORT EXPEDITION STUDYING ARCTIC OCEAN AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE-ARCTIC RESEARCH CGCP NOW CMOS GLOBAL CHANGE FORUM IGBP UPDATE IPCC-SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT IDNDR-THE YOKOHAMA STRATEGY OPINION-IGBP REPORT NO. 28: WORK PLAN 1994-1998 UVB IMPACTS CONFERENCE UNIQUE WEATHER PROJECT   CCP INFO MODELLING THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM WEATHER AND CLIMATE: INFORMATION FOR AGRICULTURE JAMES BRUCE WINS 1994 IMO PRIZE

DELTA is published quarterly by the Royal Society of Canada (RSC). It is named after the fourth letter of the Greek alphabet, a universal symbol for incremental change. This issue was edited and produced by K. Mortimer. The members of the DELTA Editorial Board are M.R. Dence (RSC), F. Kenneth Hare (Trent University), J. Holmes (Parliamentary Centre for Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade), B. Kowaliczko (RSC), L. Maillette, (Université du Québec à Trois Rivières), R.A. Price (Queen's University) and J. Watson (RSC). We thank everyone who contributed. Your contributions or comments are always welcome. The next submission deadline is September 16, 1994. The opinions expressed in this newsletter are those of the writers, and do not necessarily represent those of the CGCP. THE MACKENZIE BASIN IMPACT S TUDY: A MID-TERM PROGRESS REPORT Stewart J. Cohen Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada   The Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS), part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, has now reached the halfway point in its six year mandate to assess the potential regional implications of global climatic change. A mid-study workshop was held on April 11-14, 1994 in Yellowknife. There were more than 100 participants from governments, academia, nongovernment organizations and northern communities. The workshop included about 60 presentations on research in progress, as well as panel discussions and a Round Table on the overall MBIS program. These included studies on water resources, permafrost, vegetation, wildlife, economic activities, community studies, and applications of remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Particular attention was given to the challenges of producing an integrated assessment, and to incorporating traditional ecological knowledge into the MBIS. The Mid-Study Workshop in Yellowknife represented an important opportunity for MBIS participants to share information on work in progress with all interested parties, including government agencies, native communities and other stakeholders. What follows are some highlights from the various presentations, and some of the many questions raised about the potential regional impacts of global warming scenarios, that still remain unanswered. Physical Component There may be coastal flooding and accelerated coastal erosion along the shoreline of the Beaufort Sea. Freshwater runoff may be slightly reduced in the Basin, with an earlier snowmelt peak and a reduction in duration of ice and snow cover. Permafrost thaw could occur in the discontinuous zone (southern Mackenzie Valley), but the agent of change may be through increased frequency and severity of forest fires, or exposure of ice-rich soils to warmer water or air, rather than through conduction from the surface. A thicker seasonal active layer could develop even within the continuous permafrost zone. Biological Component Changes in the Boreal forest may be quite substantial, including greater productivity but increased risk of fire, succession by hardwoods, (birch-aspen replacing spruce), and invasion of new pests/diseases from the south. Wildlife in the North have adapted to past climatic changes, but future adaptability and potential shifts in location of wildlife may be dependent on the rate of warming and related changes to the landscape. Wetland and peatland areas in the deltas and elsewhere may also experience considerable changes if warmer conditions lead to reductions in soil moisture and water levels during the growing season. Socio-Economic Component It is too early in the MBIS exercise to outline specific socio-economic impacts, but some important issues may be emerging at this stage. There have been suggestions, for example, that warming could lead to potential benefits in agriculture, forestry and tourism, but could that lead to new conflicts over land use? Current and planned infrastructure (buildings, roads, pipelines, mines, waste sites) would have to cope with unstable permafrost for many years, but water-borne transportation could benefit from a longer shipping season. Could this combination affect decisions related to future development of non-renewable energy resources in the Beaufort Sea? What happens to Northerners, especially those in smaller communities which more closely follow a traditional indigenous lifestyle, but could be faced with shifts in wildlife migration patterns, reductions in the winter road season, and other changes? Can traditional ecological knowledge be used along with modern science to help address questions related to possible impacts of future climatic changes on northern communities? Integrated Assessment MBIS is attempting to produce an integrated regional assessment of global warming scenarios as a way of identifying the indirect linkages between climate and regional policy concerns, such as land and water management. Several exercises are being tried, including: resource accounting with input-output modelling; land assessment; review of water resources policy instruments; and study of settlement patterns. Each of these utilize the outputs of various sectoral studies in order to address some of the human dimensions of climatic change. In addition, traditional knowledge studies may contribute to integration, since they could provide important "ground truth" for broader types of studies. All of these are being tried because there is no clear consensus on which (if any) method is the best for producing an integrated study. They could be viewed as a "family" of integrators in that they address complementary issues. The interdisciplinary group approach taken by MBIS, which combines scientific inquiry with regional consultation, may also be an important integrating function. If one or more of these integration exercises can be successfully completed, this will represent an important advance in the development of impact research methodology. What happens to MBIS after this workshop? The results of this workshop will be published as MBIS Interim Report #2, later this year. MBIS is funded by the Green Plan until the 1996/97 fiscal year, so there will likely be one more gathering of this kind, probably in late 1995 or early 1996 to discuss the final results of this program and to gather material for the MBIS Final Report, which would be published later in 1996. There could also be smaller meetings to focus on key issues, such as the one on freshwater studies, held jointly with Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) participants in January 1994 in Saskatoon. MBIS is part of a broader research program supported through the Green Plan, which is intended to provide information for decision making on global warming, and on how Canada should respond to it. This effort exists because scientists are trying to reduce the uncertainties associated with global warming. The question for Canadians, however, is far-reaching: is it better to act now before there is scientific certainty, or is it better to wait for certainty? There's a lot of science being done, but has the 'so what' question been answered? Several 'no regrets' strategies (e.g. afforestation, improved energy efficiency) have been suggested, but there are other measures also being considered, such as some form of Carbon tax. There have been reports in the press about the costs of a Carbon tax, but do we know the costs of doing nothing about climate change? Studies like MBIS are important because they address the 'so what' question, providing information on the costs of doing nothing, bringing the global warming issue closer to home, improving our awareness and understanding of both the scientific and human aspects of global warming in regionally relevant terms. This exercise in research and consultation will hopefully provide a sense of regional ownership in the results of MBIS, and ultimately lead to well informed research and policy responses, based on the best information available. The workshop was co-sponsored by Environment Canada, Indian & Northern Affairs Canada, Renewable Resources Department of the Government of the North West Territories, Science Institute of the North West Territories, Canadian Global Change Program of the Royal Society of Canada, and the Canadian Polar Commission. For more information contact Stewart Cohen, Atmospheric Environment Service, 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4; telephone: (416) 739-4389; fax: (416) 739-4297; INTERNET: scohen@dow.on.doe.ca.