TABLE OF CONTENTS MBIS: A MID-TERM PROGRESS REPORT EXPEDITION STUDYING ARCTIC OCEAN AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE-ARCTIC RESEARCH CGCP NOW CMOS GLOBAL CHANGE FORUM IGBP UPDATE IPCC-SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT IDNDR-THE YOKOHAMA STRATEGY OPINION-IGBP REPORT NO. 28: WORK PLAN 1994-1998 UVB IMPACTS CONFERENCE UNIQUE WEATHER PROJECT   CCP INFO MODELLING THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM WEATHER AND CLIMATE: INFORMATION FOR AGRICULTURE JAMES BRUCE WINS 1994 IMO PRIZE

CMOS GLOBAL CHANGE FORUM Karen Mortimer Canadian Global Change Program Ottawa, May 30, 1994--As part of this year's Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) Congress, a Global Change Forum was held to complement the Congress' theme, Science: Meteorology and Oceanography--Addressing the Issues. Gordon McBean, Assistant Deputy Minister of Atmospheric Environment Service of Environment Canada, President of CMOS and a new member of CGCP's Board of Directors, opened the forum, emphasizing the importance that global change issues should have for Canadian oceanographers and meteorologists. Clifford Lincoln, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of the Environment, discussed the important role of CMOS members in providing accurate environmental indicators. He also noted that Canada has the highest amount of CO2 emissions per capita in the world, and that drastic steps will have to be taken to reduce emissions to 1990 levels. Full Cost Accounting Maurice Strong, Chairman and CEO of Ontario Hydro, expanded on Lincoln's first point, suggesting that scientists have to become as familiar with politics as with the ecosystems they are studying if change is ever to be effected. He also commented on science in general, expressing disapproval of the commercialization of research, and insisting that an integrated approach to science is essential. Strong also said that the full costs of environmental and related service needs should be brought into our accounting system, but that this has to be done on a societal basis. So far, Ontario Hydro is only using full cost accounting to guide their decision-making process and is unlikely to go further unless there is some common consensus that this is the way most people will be doing things. By the same token though, Strong feels that full cost accounting will become a reality at some point and noted, at the end of his talk, that "there can be no pessimists in the post-Rio transition, for pessimism will be self-fulfilling". Some interesting thoughts on economics and the environment were put forward by William Rees, a professor and Director of University of British Columbia's School of Community and Regional Planning. He talked about the concept of "ecological footprints", wherein one imagines a region, such as Vancouver or Trois RiviŠres, as being enclosed by a plastic capsule and then calculates how big that plastic capsule has to be to ensure that the region can sustain itself indefinitely. With current consumption patterns the Fraser Valley region in British Columbia, for instance, would require an area of eight million hectares--twenty-two times larger than its actual area--to fully sustain its human population. Rees said that if you then apply this approach to entire countries, most appear to be maintaining a huge ecological deficit, wherein economies require a far larger "pasture" than is available in their own country. He went on to suggest that if we want to continue increasing our consumption levels, then we must decrease the amount of materials/energy that we use at an equal rate. He also noted that there must be an increase in the taxes levied on these materials/energy, but that there should be a corresponding decrease in taxes in other areas, so that the economy will not be destroyed. His final point was that market forces alone will not be able to achieve the solutions we need, that we need to move towards new ecological economies. Jon Grant, Chairman of The Quaker Oats Company of Canada again raised the issue of full cost accounting. He suggested that instituting it doesn't necessarily require draconian measures, but that we can and must start conditioning consumers and industry by exposing them to full cost accounting now. This simply requires sending them the "real" bill for what they have purchased, including the environmental costs, paving the way for actually charging full costs in the future. Grant suggested going to the CEOs of four or five leading Canadian companies and, perhaps in conjunction with the Canadian Association of Chartered Accountants (who have already worked a great deal on full cost accounting) and an industry association, forming a task force on implementing full cost accounting. Bringing the forum's focus back to science, Jim Bruce, Chair of the Canadian Climate Program Board, Chair of the United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and CGCP Board member, emphasized that the critical issue at hand for science is to determine the thresholds of ecosystem sustainability. John Foster, Honorary Chairman and President of the World Energy Council and a former President of Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., moved away from science again and discussed energy, focusing on nuclear power. He mentioned that there are apparently some indications that population growth in the developing world might be levelling off, but that populations are still expanding, as is the corresponding use of energy. Biomass and hydro, Foster claimed, can only cater to a small part of this growth in demand. He therefore feels that the use of nuclear power will increase again over the next few years. Foster also said he is confident that when the need for nuclear power shows itself again, the technology will have improved. Stephen Lewis concluded the speakers' portion of the forum. He noted that "the self-centeredness of wealthy nations is putting the world at risk," and went on to discuss population and fertility rates, the UN's "obsession with process rather than content," the use of 90% of aid money for administration and consultants fees and the fact that hardly any Northern countries have been forthcoming with the 7% of GNP as foreign aid that they promised at the Earth Summit in Rio. Lewis concluded his talk with a point aimed directly at members of CMOS, saying that "the scientific community have to be advocates as well as clinicians." Simplify language In the panel discussion that followed panel members (most of the speakers) were asked to suggest how scientists can convey both information and concern to policy-makers. Lewis responded that somewhere along the way scientists have to take their work outside. Simply putting findings in language that is understandable to non-scientists and making them readily available will take scientists a long way toward conveying the information they have more effectively, without taking an advocacy role, which Lewis recognized as being difficult for scientists. He suggested that if more scientists followed this advice, and did it systematically and often, it would make a big difference to policy-making. Jim Bruce added that another option for scientists is to get involved in international organizations such as the World Climate Program. Another question raised during the panel discussion was about what should be done to redirect interest in support of science, particularly in light of Industry Canada's current Science and Technology Review. Jim Bruce suggested that if we invest funds in research and development immediately, we could get a "part of the action" in new energy and other technologies that Europe, for instance, has already recognized. Bill Rees and Stephen Lewis were more skeptical, with Lewis saying that Canada is already paying for the lack of attention given to research and development in the past decade, and he is not sure that we can ever regain our footing. A key point that brought the thought-provoking day to a close was a suggestion that adopting Bill Rees' ecological footprint model might take us back several decades. Bill Rees responded by asking what was so bad about going back to the consumption levels of the 1950s or '60s? In addition to the organizer, CMOS, this event was co-sponsored by the CGCP, Environment Canada, Agriculture and Agrifoods Canada, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans, and Natural Resources Canada.