TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION WHAT IS "HUMAN SECURITY"? WHAT TYPES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AFFECT HUMAN SECURITY? WHAT REGIONS ARE MOST AT RISK? ADAPTATION AND HUMAN SECURITY WHAT TYPES OF POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS CAN ONE MAKE GLOBALLY? MORE INFORMATION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

WHAT REGIONS ARE MOST AT RISK? Regions of critical concern to the international community are those exhibiting both ecological stress and human vulnerability, where vulnerability is the degree to which individuals or communities are disrupted in the face of environmental change. Parts of Africa, Eastern Europe, China and South Asia have all been identified as vulnerable because of a depleted resource base, environmental deterioration or human vulnerability. What is needed is a system to assist in identifying future "hot spots" and to aid in development planning. This implies incorporating the various aspects of human security into a system which will not only help identify these critical regions, but also the types of adaptation strategies which can be used. One possible approach is presented in Figure 4, where twelve indicators of human security were combined and mapped. The resulting index of vulnerability can then be projected for future time periods. It should be recognized that this approach is highly speculative, and at this stage is more useful to aid in the discussion of linkages rather than as a policy tool, as such. For example, two countries which appear to be highly vulnerable with this method, Mali and Afghanistan, exhibit quite different levels of individual indicators. Mali has extremely high rates of child mortality, maternal mortality, and levels of food imports, and a relatively high level of human freedom. Afghanistan, on the other hand, exhibits a low dependency on food imports, a reasonably high level of water scarcity and very low levels of human freedom. It is these factors — and others — in combination with one another that may pose the greatest threat to human security. The indicators which comprise the "Vulnerability Index" presented in Figure 4 are listed below. Food Import Dependency Ratio Water Scarcity Energy Imports as a % of Consumption Access to Safe Water Expenditures on Defense vs. Health and Education Indicator of Human Freedoms Urban Population Growth Child Mortality Maternal Mortality Income per capita Degree of Democratization Physical Violence